Menos El Oso

Says ''felize ano nuevo''!

Seattle's Gum Wall

Gross!

George Russell and Micheal Sheldon, Success by Ten

Success by Ten, by George Russell and Michael Sheldon

If you like investment consulting and business leadership books, read my review then buy this book:

Here is what I wrote on Amazon:

Entertaining Affirmations and a Wonderful Perspective on the Industry and Entrepreneurism,

I highly recommend this book! I recommend reading it to any business oriented person with an interest in leadership, management, entrepreneurism, or the investment consulting industry. I list those descriptors as mutually exclusive categories but they are all reasons to take interest in the book. I work in the investment industry and am generally interested in reading the works of sucessful and principled business leaders. This book is full of great affirmations on business leadership. I'll admit I probably enjoyed it more than the average person would due to my investment background and familiarity with the Russell company.

The insights may not qualify as leading edge, but they are great affirmations on a positive approach to running a business from someone who takes a humble, yet confident and decisive approach. The principles are described well through a series of anecdotes that cover the history of George Russell's professional life. These anecdotes are particularly interesting to those who work in the investment consulting industry or for others tasked with building a business. For us it is a rare gem.

The book is easy to read. The effective writing style kept the pace of the book brisk. Obviously this is to be attributed to Michael Sheldon. I can only imagine the difficulty associated with editing the thoughts and giving voice to a sucessful executive concerned with his legacy. For me it was a fascinating read. (Disclaimer: I have no financial interest here, but Michael Sheldon is a colleague and friend.)

Notes to Santa

And the magic of Christmas with Michael Jackson! I wonder if MJ has a spot up North with the elves?

Merry Christmas!

Health Care Fun

A colleague sent me this analysis from John Stossel. Who can argue with Stossel? A powerful insurance lobby that’s who! Vote for change!

 

December 23, 2009 09:33 AM EST by John Stossel

The Singapore Alternative

I pointed out on my show last week that health “reform” that gives people more health insurance will only raise health care costs. Insurance itself is the problem. When people don't spend their own money, they don't care what health care costs.

One solution is health saving accounts, or HSAs, in which people spend their own money for routine treatment (HSAs provide insurance for catastrophic health problems). Since Whole Foods adopted that policy in 2003, costs haven't risen -- and employees say they are happy with their coverage.

The country of Singapore is another success story. Singaporeans have universal healthcare, but their system is unique in that it runs on, essentially, the HSA model.

The WHO says that 64 percent of all medical spending in Singapore comes from individuals spending their own money at the doctor's office.  In the US it's 13 percent. In France, where the government pays for just about everything, it's 7 percent.

The result? Economist Scott Sumner says:

1.  Singapore health care costs only half as much as European health care.

2.  Singapore has universal coverage.

3.  Singaporeans live much longer than Europeans.

Some of that may be  because of differences in  culture and crime rates. But Singapore also beats its Asian neighbors that have government-run health care: Singaporeans spend half as much as Japanese, yet have virtually the same life span.

If we do want universal care, more HSAs would be better than Congress’ 2,000 pages of micromanagement.

http://stossel.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2009/12/23/the-singapore-alternative/

 

Armed with only a cell phone

Thus you get the random photos and semi-thoughtful posts.

One of the great mysteries in life is people's general aversion to creativity. As a race of mortals on the whole we do an awesome job of surfacing artists. But think about it from a percentage or per capita point of view. How many new ideas are really generated?

How many artists even keep it fresh, let alone corporations, married people, and college kids?

That was one of the fun things about seeing PTM for the 4th time in 2 years. They rearranged all their songs and blurred them together as if it was the first time again.

Who are the Real "Fat Cat" Innkeepers?

From my (annoyingly) optimistic economic outlook provider:

 

The cherry picked money quote:

“Many seem to believe that government is necessary to protect people from all this evil. Very few stop and wonder if this line of thought makes any sense. After all, if it is people who are evil then we should want to make sure that no one has absolute power and authority over others.”

 

 

Monday Morning Outlook Who are the Real "Fat Cat" Innkeepers? To view this article, Click Here Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA - Senior Economist Date: 12/21/2009 The story of the virgin birth – Joseph, Mary and Jesus – is told often at this time of the year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary delivered the baby after arriving in Bethlehem and “placed [baby Jesus] in a manger, because there was no room for them in the inn.”   Conventional wisdom assumes that Mary and Joseph were somehow mistreated by a greedy, evil capitalist innkeeper. This hearsay is repeated in just about every play, skit or sermon on the subject, with nothing to back it up.   The Bible does not name an innkeeper. There is no record of anyone complaining at the time, nor apparently were Mary and Joseph charged for the use of the stable. The town was overflowing because of the census, which was ordered for the purposes of taxation. Small towns all over were packed as people returned to their ancestral homes. In other words, the problem, if you can call it that, was caused by the unintended consequences of government policy.   The fact that this narrative about the greedy innkeeper has become conventional wisdom is a testament to how successful government has been in tarnishing the reputation of business people. But one could easily argue that the innkeeper was generous to a fault. Faced with an over-booked hotel, he offered his stable to a young, pregnant, road-weary couple – possibly free of charge. The stable existed because he had built it and accumulated the assets in it, including the manger.   If you listen to the politicians, today’s innkeepers are insurance companies making “obscene profits,” doctors who “make a lot more money if [they] take this kid’s tonsils out,” and “Fat Cat” bankers. Add oil company executives to the mix and we have the makings of a Charles Dickens novel on a grand scale – with Ebenezer Scrooges everywhere.   To make an obvious point, all this perceived evil is supposedly done by people who somehow find themselves in a position to mistreat others at will. The fact that they work for banks or insurance companies does not obfuscate this point. It is people who do evil, if it is being done, not institutions. And this brings up an important point. If you run into an evil person – whether they are on their own, or they work at a for-profit or a not-for-profit organization, or if they work for government, they are still evil.   Many seem to believe that government is necessary to protect people from all this evil. Very few stop and wonder if this line of thought makes any sense. After all, if it is people who are evil then we should want to make sure that no one has absolute power and authority over others.   In a capitalist system, free market competition does that. No business can force you to buy their service or product. You have choices. But government is a different story. It has the power of the law behind its demands. Whether you want to or not, you must pay into Social Security. And the new healthcare bill says you must have insurance, or face fines and punishment.   Pure socialism forces people to follow the state, that’s why there are guards at the borders of North Korea and the shores of Cuba to keep people from leaving. But the writers of the US Constitution made sure there were “checks and balances” in the system. Three branches of government and elections. So if enough people believe national healthcare will increase the odds that every new child will eventually be born in a manger, they can always throw the bums out and start over again. To some, this may not be as good as having a savior, but it sure gives those who are fearful of big government some real hope at this time of the year.   This information contains forward-looking statements about various economic trends and strategies. You are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and actual results could be materially different. There are no guarantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here are subject to change at any time and are the opinion of the individual strategist. Data comes from the following sources: Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Board, and Haver Analytics. Data is taken from sources generally believed to be reliable but no guarantee is given to its accuracy.

 

I heart PDX!

If for no other reason than it makes an old Banana Republican like me feel young.

The Roake's Christmas Pagent

How cool it is to live near so many good people and to celebrate the birth of Christ with them---in a barn!

Gold

From Morningstar:

 

Stipp: Speaking of interesting ideas, there's an interesting, unorthodox indicator that we saw on the gold front this week. Tell us a little bit about that.

Glaser: We saw that MC Hammer seems to have taken an equity stake in Cash4Gold. It's one of those services where you send your gold in and they send you back cash. I think at the point that MC Hammer is getting involved in the gold market and there's that much hype about it, it might be a sign that we're in a bit of a bubble there. And that gold, as it continues to reach these new highs, might be a little bit pricey.

Stipp: So, Jeremy, if you had to say, "Gold: 2 Legit 2 Quit," or "Gold: U Can't Touch This," which one would it be?

Glaser: I would not touch gold right now.

 

Our Resident Genius

Do you remember giving speeches in the 2^nd grade? I remember dodge ball and the monkey bars. My kids are way smarter than I am already. For example, did you know that in Japan the secondary language is French? I was sure it was English. But again, what do I know?

The recording is quiet so turn up the volume and keep an eye out for Meme.

Greatest Scam Ever?

If you think about all of the social, political, and financial capital put behind the idea of "anthropogenic climate change" (yes those are quotes because it is still up for debate if not debunked) it definitely qualifies for the greatest scam ever. The only other comparison would be religion. Yes, it is on that grand a scale. After all, isn't post-modern enviromentalism the religion of the liberals?

You may try to argue that man-made climate change is a fact proven by science. But you would be sophmoric to do so. After all, for years there has been much debate with just as much evidence against man-made climate change, and there has also been evidence that the proponents of this great blame game have been manipulative from the beginning (see links here and here). It has largely been ignored by the mainstream media in America and opponents of the blame game, or objective scientists have been peer pressured to stay quiet or lost tenure or financial support.

You should know that I am not anti-Earth or a pollutionist. I believe in efficiency. I believe the Earth is a sentient being. I believe that the Earth and all its plants, animals, and beauty were built just for us, and thus we should respect this gift and use it to its highest and best use. However, I don't believe that we are subservient to the Earth, plants, or animals...

Why the recent diatribe? Well the latest news around the world isn't that Obama and others are discussing climate change, but that someone hacked into (or an insider leaked internal documents) from one of the primary research centers.

It shows that the "scientists" (yes, quotes again) believe the ends justify the means. The end game, more power and money, just ask Al Gore.

A few summaries are here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125883405294859215.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_news

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1229740/Hackers-expose-global-warming-Claims-leaked-emails-reveal-research-centre-massaged-temperature-data.html

The full data review is here:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/11/hacked-hadley-cru-foi2009-files.html#more



Cool British documentary from a few years ago that didn't quite get the level of attention it deserved.
http://cdn1.ustream.tv/swf/4/viewer.201.swf?vid=1391917&vrsl=c.4.245

Ski you later

I am excited that I have reached the point in life where I can give the girls ski lessons. The good times are just beginning.

My First Time

Eating at Applebee's

Sonja Begonia

Sonja,
My how time flies when you are so cute and fun! I don't think these pics ever made it to the blog since they are from yesteryear. Now we can all enjoy them together!

Bubble? What Bubble?

Hopefully I am wrong, but how are the underlying fundamentals of companies and the economy supportive of higher valuations from here? Won’t continued easy money lead to higher valuations from here and encourage borrowing? Hair of the dog anyone?

 

I guess in this situation there is on thing you can do to take advantage and benefit: Refi and extend your debt obligations. If you can use this low interest rate environment to lower the interest rate on your debt you could do worse than to lock it in over a long period of time. Then don’t forget to aggressively pay it down as you are able, but why keep a high interest rate hanging around? If you get your rates low enough and the Fed works to inflate us out of the current situation your debt will have cost you nothing (if your interest rate is lower than the inflation rate).

 

From Lotsoff Capital:

Bernanke's speech yesterday concentrated mostly on the current employment situation in the Unites States, as well as the weakness seen in bank lending. The Fed chairman also stated he does not see any asset bubbles currently forming, and hence would be inclined to lengthen the "extended period" where rates would be held lower. Vice Chairman Kohn later that day made comments echoing Bernake's thoughts on asset prices, and that if such price bubbles were seen, countering them with rate hikes might not necessarily be the best course of action.

 

I have always struggled with my inherent need to strive to improve things around me. I always want people to make decisions based on what is the most effective solution. This leads me to suggest changes to the conventional approach or tradition. That is often problematic when it makes someone you work with uncomfortable, whether it be your client, co-worker, or boss. Especially if it is your boss.

I don't believe I am an innovator, but I believe I share some of the DNA or a somewhat similar fate with these less conventional types. That is why I have put a lot of effort to become the MBA type described below - to reach the point where I could be considered in the range of normal, but still an intelligent person, capable of leadership.


Nov 6, 2009 (6 days ago)
Innovation is Not Rewarded

from Falkenblog by Eric Falkenstein

"I personally have known a lot of really smart people and have to say they are more unconventional in their ideas, yet most of their ideas are crazy. If you have ever been to a Mensa meeting (IQ but little formal education), you realize how things like homeopathy, or truthers, get their bearings. If you have ever hung out with PhDs, you know how limited their competence scope is (at research universities they have the same IQ as Mensans, but are more disciplined and less creative). It's no wonder guys like stereotypical MBAs, who are not so analytical but rather personable and articulate, tend to dominate society.

I suspect MBA rule is less catastrophic than PhD or Mensa rule, if only because they aren't as certain of themselves. This all gets back to the idea there is an optimal IQ, and it's not 180, but rather, say, 125 (probably the modal IQ for any large group leader, such as Presidents and CEOs).Being smart is a good thing, and I'm happy when my kids do well on cognitive tests because of what this portends for their life (as Charles Murray noted, most people would prefer their kid had 15 more IQ points than get $1 million on their 21st birthday).

So, if you attempt to innovate, take pride that you are doing it with blatant disregard for your narrow self interest. Objectively, you will fail with a high probability. Like thinking about the lottery, there are happy delusions of grandeur considering your improbable future success. You can counter those who say, you should be feeding orphans in an African village, in that your efforts have large positive externalities. Most importantly, it's fun."

To The Nines!

12th anniversary! Party of two!

12 Years of Reasons

And counting...

come through me
you arrive and I'm on fire
subdue me
to explode that you inspired
so groovily
second episode of ALL SMILES
let's make a movie
in the name of all great liars
improvising Kaufman style
they are all reasons to me
they are all reasons to be
they are all reasons to see
how the hell do you do this?
change the colors shapes and size
I'm clueless
not one thing I recognize
so foolish
every now's a big surprise
help me to get through this
stay with me until I die
there's nothing else I wanna try
they are all reasons to me

Who knew Dr Seuss Was an Economist?

So Roubini and El-Erian have both warned about the "benefits" of loose money and the potential disaster it may bring. Unfortunately, it may be the only way to fix the problem. Or at least the only way the central bankers can think of.

Here is one way to think of it:

I give you more money, you think it makes you rich so you go spend it. Little did you know I gave money to everyone else too. Some got more than you, they are spending it too. I also made it as easy as possible for everyone to borrow money. Some people are buying stuff like stocks. So you buy some too. The problem? If we all have a lot of money, but nobody actually earned it by creating anything the money isn't worth much. So the price of everything goes up to compensate for the fact that the money you are spending is worth less.

One little whiff of this reality check and people start to worry then save (or sell stocks). Then it spirals back down again as people stop producing because there aren't any buyers only sellers.

On a separate but related note, and in honor of Dr Suess:

In grad school we had one of those wonky brainiac professors who wrote his own textbook on transparencies and used them on the overhead. At one point he was going on about hyperbolic discounting and intensive margins (which sounded like gobbledy gook to a few in the room). The professor then paused and asked the class if there were any questions. One clever young fellow from Las Vegas raised his hand and asked, "since when did Dr Seuss become an economist?" Well apparently, Dr Seuss was an insightful fellow whose nonsensical prose may have indeed been inspired by economics since he apparently drew this comic.

America's Best Dance Crew

Do you remember being dropped off for so long to be babysat that you came up with a performance routine of some sort? If you had any siblings and ever spent a long boring day at some friend of your parents' house you must have. Admit it.

I remember using the Lite Brite as a stage light and a tennis racket and a table with all my girl siblings and aunt as back up. Was it Elvis or Stevie Wonder? I don't recall. It happened more than once.

There are three things I learned from this video:
1) Little boys are different from little girls by nature
2) Choreography is hard
3) Costuming is easy

Obama Phone

College students take note. Obama is giving cell phones to the poor. You could get a free cell phone! (Unless you have a job and are working your way through college. People with jobs shouldn't benefit.)

I thought it was a hoax. Maybe it is. It has to be! Why would a cell phone be a necessity? I understand it is very helpful in an emergency, but it is more convenient than necessary in my book.

I'd rather have people paving highways and spending their paycheck or saving it, than handing out goods and services. I bet the cost of this program could repair an aging bridge in a large city.

What's next free cable? I am all for providing people with what they need to help themselves. But learning skills and how to be self-sufficient is way more powerful than simply enabling folks. There has to be some effort/reward methodology.

What am I missing? Teach a person to fish...

It does not seem like a hoax. From the source:
https://www.safelinkwireless.com/EnrollmentPublic/faq.aspx

Lifeline Benefits
Lifeline Assistance is part of a program that was created by the government to provide discounted or free telephone service to income-eligible consumers. To help bring you this important benefit, SafeLink Wireless is proud to offer Lifeline Service. Through our Lifeline Service you will receive FREE cellular service, a FREE cell phone, and FREE Minutes every month! SafeLink Wireless Service does not cost anything – there are no contracts, no recurring fees and no monthly charges.
Any Minutes you do not use will roll-over. Features such as caller ID, call waiting and voicemail are all also included with your service. If you need additional Minutes, you can buy TracFone Airtime Cards at any TracFone retailer Walmart, Walgreens, Family Dollar, etc). SafeLink Airtime Cards will be available soon.
Your exact benefits, including the number of free Minutes you will receive, depend on the state you live in. Please enter your ZIP code to get the details for your state.
Frequently Asked Questions
Lifeline ServiceSafeLink Wireless is proud to offer Lifeline Service, which is a program that enables qualifying customers to receive discounts on monthly telephone service. In our version of the program, you will receive free cellular service, a free SafeLink Wireless cell phone and the assurance that you will get no bills and no contracts EVER!


How do I know if I am eligible?

In general, eligibility can be determined based on two qualifiers:

Participation in the General Eligibility Program listed below.

Total household income as described below.

General Eligibility ProgramsFederal Public Housing Assistance / Section 8
Food Stamps
Medicaid
Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
National School Lunch (free program only)
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)


Total Household IncomeDepending on your state of residence, eligibility may apply if your total household income is at or below 135% of the Federal Poverty Guidelines. Submitted documentation may also be required as proof of your total household income.

MTV, Gold, and GTAA

It helps to understand the beauty of Mebane’s post if you have familiarity with the following three elements:

 

a)      World Beta blog

b)      Investing

c)       MTV reality shows

 

From Mebane’s blog:

Contrarian Signs

Posted: 04 Nov 2009 01:50 PM PST

Well, not only is Spencer Pratt following me on Twitter (along with 12k other people), but his last post is “I hope you bought Gold when I told you!”.

After I finished vomiting in my mouth and blocking him, I shuddered at the thought of being in gold alongside him.

Glad I have a quant stop in place, wonder what his exit strategy is??

 

Beautiful people have more daughters

So we may be poor and lack status, but according to our offspring (100% girls) we are “very attractive”! I’ll take that as a compliment!

Beautiful people have more daughters
It is commonly believed that whether parents conceive a boy or a girl is up to random chance. Close, but not quite; it is largely up to chance. The normal sex ratio at birth is 105 boys for every 100 girls. But the sex ratio varies slightly in different circumstances and for different families. There are factors that subtly influence the sex of an offspring.

One of the most celebrated principles in evolutionary biology, the Trivers-Willard hypothesis, states that wealthy parents of high status have more sons, while poor parents of low status have more daughters. This is because children generally inherit the wealth and social status of their parents. Throughout history, sons from wealthy families who would themselves become wealthy could expect to have a large number of wives, mistresses and concubines, and produce dozens or hundreds of children, whereas their equally wealthy sisters can have only so many children. So natural selection designs parents to have biased sex ratio at birth depending upon their economic circumstances—more boys if they are wealthy, more girls if they are poor. (The biological mechanism by which this occurs is not yet understood.)

This hypothesis has been documented around the globe. American presidents, vice presidents, and cabinet secretaries have more sons than daughters. Poor Mukogodo herders in East Africa have more daughters than sons. Church parish records from the 17th and 18th centuries show that wealthy landowners in Leezen, Germany, had more sons than daughters, while farm laborers and tradesmen without property had more daughters than sons. In a survey of respondents from 46 nations, wealthy individuals are more likely to indicate a preference for sons if they could only have one child, whereas less wealthy individuals are more likely to indicate a preference for daughters.

The generalized Trivers-Willard hypothesis goes beyond a family's wealth and status: If parents have any traits that they can pass on to their children and that are better for sons than for daughters, then they will have more boys. Conversely, if parents have any traits that they can pass on to their children and that are better for daughters, they will have more girls.

Physical attractiveness, while a universally positive quality, contributes even more to women's reproductive success than to men's. The generalized hypothesis would therefore predict that physically attractive parents should have more daughters than sons. Once again, this is the case. Americans who are rated "very attractive" have a 56 percent chance of having a daughter for their first child, compared with 48 percent for everyone else.